Article
credits: Damian Smith, aka justthedude
Nothing is 100% in poker, but there are
certain “poker truths” that
you need to pay attention to. When I refer
to “poker truths” I’m
talking about something that’s true
more than it is false. That’s as close
as you can get in this game.
The “poker truth” I want to
discuss today is this: "When a player
shows aggression on the turn, they usually
have a strong hand."
What this means is, more often than not,
against an average player, you’ll
know where you stand on the turn.
Let’s look at couple of typical situations
where your hand is disguised:
Example 1: You get a strong
hand, AKs, in LP and put in a 3xBB raise.
You get two callers. The flop misses you,
Q93 rainbow, it’s checked around and
you put in a continuation bet of ½
the pot. How does this bet look to your
opponents?
Example 2: Now let’s
say that the flop hit you, K93, it’s
checked around and you put in a bet of ½
the pot. How does this bet look to your
opponents?
The answer is; these two bets look exactly
the same. It is hard for your opponents
to know what they’re up against. Now
take example 1 and replace the AK with another
monster, 72 off. Even though you really
only have 72o, to your opponents the bet
looks exactly the same.
My point here is not to raise with any two
cards (though you can in the right situation),
but is to point out that it is on the flop
that hands are most easily disguised. This
is where deception can be very useful. This
is where you can often “represent”
a hand and get away with it.
The Turn:
The turn is where things get clearer. Fewer
players are willing to continue, at the
risk of losing more chips, their bluff on
the turn. Therefore, more often than not,
if they bet, they have a legitimate hand.
So move forward cautiously when faced with
a turn bet.
An even bigger risk is calling a raise on
the turn. A lot of players wait until the
turn to raise their monster hands, hoping
to get extra chips on the flop with a slow
play. If you run into a turn raise after
a relatively quiet flop you should be very
cautious moving forward, there’s an
extremely good chance you’ll need
better than top pair to win this hand.
That pattern of smooth calling a flop bet
or raise and raising the turn is almost
always going to be trouble. Very few players
make this move without a big hand.
According to some statistics I found that
were compiled from the poker-tracker stats
of several on-line players (100,000+ hands).
A turn raiser goes on to win the
hand 63% of the time. Even more
glaring than that is 71% of turn
check-raisers go on to win the
hand! The data also shows that turn check-raises
are generally playing 2 pair or
better. So think hard before calling
with just top pair.
That doesn’t mean you should automatically
fold your top pair to a raiser. If you’re
heads up against a loose raiser or someone
who regularly bets their draws, then your
top pair may very well be good for a call
or re-raise. But, if you’re against
a tight raiser or if someone raised after
multiple players have called bets, you’re
top pair is not good, so dump it.
Another problem with calling raises on the
turn is that you often end up calling the
river. A good rule of thumb when deciding
whether to call a turn bet is to include
a river bet in your odds calculation. So
if you need to call 2 bets into a 10 bet
pot (giving you 5-1 odds) you should also
add a couple bets for the river (2.5-1 odds)
which suddenly makes a lot of calling situations
folding situations.
Because the turn is where the “truth”
is generally told, it’s a good place
for you to make some advanced plays at the
pot. A turn raise or check raise bluff is
very powerful in the right situations, mostly
heads up. Just make sure you have a good
read on your opponent and don’t get
carried away. These are great moves in moderation.
In my opinion, the turn is the toughest
street to play in Texas Holdem. Making the
right moves here is what will ultimately
make you a winning player. So going forward,
before quickly calling turn bets and raises,
ask yourself a few questions that may help
you define your opponent’s hand.
What types of hands would he have where
he would smooth call the flop and raise
the turn? Two pair? A set? Does the board
complete a draw?
What types of hands would he need to bet
the flop and continue on the turn? Top pair?
A big draw? Overs?
First and foremost you should trust your
reads and knowledge of your opponents, but
when that’s not enough, trust the
turn.
~justthedude
P.S. KAP thanks justthedude
for the article! Comment on this article
and others in the strategy
section of the poker forum.
|
