Edges in Poker

[nowelljr]

One of my favorite sites to read for poker strategy is Pocketfives.com. I just read an article that I think would help alot of players...I'm personally working on number 4. To read the original article.
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Finding something to hang on to when you're on a losing streak, or simply wondering where you stand as a player, can be difficult. Poker is a decision-oriented game; the luck involved in the turn of each card invalidates any profit-and-loss judgment of success. But judging the quality of each decision solely on its merits can be perilous, loaded with multiple variables. What may be the right play against one opponent at a given buy-in is a horrible mistake against another person, at another table.

So how do we determine if we're doing the best we can be? I think the only thing we can do is in determine what positive edges you have in the game you've selected to play. Here are some edges I look for:


1) Who makes math mistakes?

Easily the biggest issue in micro-stakes poker, but more prevalent throughout mid-to-upper stakes than one would expect. Many players just don't have a good grasp on the implied pot odds concept, nor the odds on making a hand with a one-gap or suited ace.

Example, from a recent $24+2 MTT. This table has been fairly weak-tight. Blinds are 60/120. Big stack at the table is in middle position with A6 suited, and limps. Cutoff & button also limp. SB has 3650 chips and raises to 750, leaving 2900 behind. BB folds. The MP player figures it's 630 more to call into a 1230 pot...just shy of 2:1 on his money. So he calls, because he read somewhere once most hands are getting the right pot odds if you're getting 2:1.

The mistake is that a direct pot odds problem only applies if there's no action yet to come. This is a problem of implied pot odds. In reality, MP is gambling 630 more for a total of 4100 chips...almost 7:1...for the chance they will flop:

a) two pair or better
b) a flush draw
c) an Ace and the SB is raising with the pocket pair part of their range (and the SB will stack off, despite the Ace hitting)

The summed odds of these three occurrences are quite a bit less than the price being offered.

You see this a lot at lower stakes with limpers as well...the player who has 10 BB left and limps with a connector or suited one-gap hand because, well, they read somewhere they're supposed to play hands like these in No Limit Hold'em.


2) Who can't change gears to protect a stack?

This leak also occurs far more at high levels than one would expect, as least as much in lower-stakes tournaments. At the WSOP Main Event, they call it "The Day 1 Curse," or "Dmitrinoblesitis." Every tournament has a player or two who runs white-hot for an extended period of time. They accumulate a mound of chips which could hide the Fugitive. They could go get a sandwich, have a drink, see a movie and get a massage, and still be above-average when they get back.

At this point, a combination of two things usually happens. At lower stakes, they keep making calls like Mr. A6 in the previous example. They call very loose, and why not? They've hit every flop so far like Mike Tyson. They've eliminated 11 players in the first five levels, so why not try for #12 with a suited J-8 when a tight player 3-bet shoves for 20 BBs?

At higher levels, the Cursed insist on attempting to run over the table five times an orbit with any two cards. There's nothing wrong with this - if the table is willing to get run over, which sometimes happens. The problem lies when the gig is up, and the last person to realize it is the formerly big stack, who has come back to the pack (and often times, gone broke before realizing what has happened).


3) Who leaks chips with poorly-sized bets?

One of the first important lessons I learned about NLHE - you should always try to bet the maximum which will get called when you want to get called, and the minimum which will make someone fold when you don't want to get called. Most players, at all levels, are pretty terrible at this.

Like many things in poker, I blame Phil Hellmuth for a lot of this phenomenon...only for once, it's not his fault. In a deep-stack tournament with small blinds, Phil plays a lot of small pots - his value bets and bluffs are usually less than 1/2 the pot, and often less than 1/3. He can do this because he will have a long time and lots of opportunities to accumulate chips. Phil is looking to his ability to make reads and as many smart decisions as possible, rather than playing big pots and going for the home run. His bets perfectly fit his style of play and the game he's in.

In most online MTTs and SNGs, the blind structure does not afford the same luxury. If you have a good hand, you have to maximize the value you get out of it, because you won't see a lot of them. If someone will call off a pot-sized bet, and you bet 1/2 the pot, it's the same as giving them money. Same goes for the bluffs you make, only in reverse...if a 1/2-pot bet would cause someone to fold, betting the pot on a bluff unnecessarily puts chips at risk.


4) Who can't adjust to the blinds and push/fold stack sizes?

Of the four on my list, this is the sole domain of the low-stakes player. It's fairly rare someone in a $50+ tournament doesn't have a decent idea how to play push/fold poker and what reasonable calling ranges may be.

These creatures, however, dominate the field in most $10-and-under MTTs. They think they can "play poker" far too long, without understanding the push/fold nuances, which are part of successful tournament poker. They are willing to limp/fold with 10 BB, and raise/fold with 15. They are the single greatest opportunity for you to pick up chips without a hand, a skill mandatory for getting deep late in tournaments.


So, as you play, and especially when reviewing hand histories, keep these four factors in mind. Hone your edges to a razor sharpness. In the kitchen, a dull edge costs you time. At the table, it costs you money.

-grapsfan

[Thessalonikios]

Thanks Gil, excellent article.