Bad Beat Lesson 101

[SweetDayToday]

Okay, I'm a new player this season and have really step up to the challenge of learning from you senior players. For a new player who has openly imbraced the advise from you senior's - I have had a good season! My next lesson senior players is learning what are the odds?????

Last night was a turning point for me...no more will I be intimented by aggressive "wet behind the ear" lucky player, with a sh_t load of chips! Talking about a bad beat...

7 seemed to be hot at the table...so I jokingly said, "Anyone would be a fool to fold a 7 tonight!" First mistake!...(had that thought in my head)

I'm the big blind with 600 chips - 3 players call. With my pocket queens ( I felt I needed to remove players so I bet 2400 chips.) First and Second player folded - third calls the bet(the young player - showing very good luck at the table)! First thought - he is holding a pocket pair (As or Ks)- but then I reminded myself of his playing...he has showed every hand and has won hands by luck. The flop is 3-7s. The call is his and he checks. I'm thinking he may have A-7 so I check. The next card is a five and he checks, so I raise the bet again...and he calls. The final river card is a queen (giving me a boat - queens over 7's). He pushes his massive count of chips and call's all-in....like a stupid fool I pondered and squirmed - had myself convinced that he had a "7" for quads so I folded. Again he showed his cards - pocket fives! I could have cried at that moment for my stupid...thinking!!! Never again will I fold a boat....to a wet behind the ear player who had trouble posting his blinds!!!!
I feel better know!!!

[JudP]

No better than 8% chance he has 2nd nuts beat, edited because I apparently can not read.

[nowelljr]

There were three 7s on the flop. A7 would most definatly be quads.

[EKUBigSlick]

Jud the flop came 777 you can't have pocket 7's guess gil beat me to it

[JudP]

Misread the post but still at best 8% (1/26 + 1/25) so I would still call

[EvilWeenie]

Right now you're suffering from a type paranoia common to newer players. You're in the "The other guy has the absolute nuts" stage. This is where you've convinced yourself that in every situation, your opponent has you beat no matter how good your hand is. Soon you'll realize the mathematical improbability of this situation and you'll progress to the "There's no way this guy's got me beat" stage. At this point you'll become a POW (pay-off wizard) and every time you get reraised with Q-Q, he'll have K-K. When you raise 5x's BB with K-K and get reraised, you'll smile and shove only to see him call with A-A. I don't know what happens next because I've never gotten past this point. Whenever I come out of my cave, I get shellshocked and find myself in the fetal postion mumbling about pot odds.

[BlindGuy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSEqLkeXwm4

[ssiman]

When holding KK, there is only a 3.8% chance another player holds AA. Yet, we see it all the time. Wierd. And how any times have you had AA cracked by 74o - when Dana is involved, I'd say there is about a 100% chance of getting cracked!

[ssiman]

Dont' ever say never. Depending on the play thus far - both throughout the game and on that hand, you really should have known you had him beat. He knew the only way to win the pot is to convince you to fold and it worked - to represent the case 7 (which is highly unlikey) or a higher pp (which is unlikely if he did not raise you preflop). I wouldn't have put him on A7.

But, there are no absolutes of course.

When you don't have the absolute nuts on the flop and are subject to being out drawn, then don't slow play. A feeler or value bet on the flop is a good idea as it will help you narrow the range of hands he has before you see the turn. If he calls you, then you really have to start watching for limbic brain responses when the turn card hits.

Slow playing is ususally not a good idea even when you have a flopped nuts situation ( this can be a good place to do a check raise, but you end up screwd if he doesn't stab at it, but there is still the possiblitily of beigning out drawn by a better boat or being already beat). And when holding the flopped nuts that is not the absolute nuts, its ususally not a good idea to give your opponenet a free card. But, you still have the long shot at catching the case Q for better quads. So you have manuvering room here.

I wouldn't decide to NEVER fold a boat - it is hard to do but a bit easier when the flop is all the same. Hands end up being huge pots when its a boat vs. boat showdown - no shit.

I was in a hand at the Wynn last March when this came up. 1/3 NLHE. I hadn't been there long enough to set my baselines on all the other players, so I was at a bit of a disadvantage.

I was holding AhJh in the cut off. It was folded around to me. I raised 3BB (hoping to just take the blinds to buy an orbit so I could start setting my baselines on the other players) and got called by the BB. Flop came J high all spades and no straight draws. It was checked to me, so I lead out about 1/3 the pot. BB announces all-in and has me covered. But, he kept his hands under the table. I just sat there looking for any read. Finally, I asked him to put out the call - I needed to see his hands. He was shaking so bad, so I folded face up. This young internet player was giving me all kinds of grief until my opponenet flopped over KsQs. AsQs, AsTs, KsQs, or JJ (maybe a flopped set with a small pp was possible but I just didn't think that was the case) any suited conector (spades) were the only hands I could put him on so I knew I was beat once I saw him shaking so badly. I knew he wasn't bluffing at it. He was leaning forward, he was shaking, his feet were pointed exactly toward to pot, he had stopped blinking and was still beathing but heavily. So it was an easy lay down for me.

BTW, it wasn't long before I busted the young gun internet player. I think he had ADHD and he started playing badly. All I had to do was be patient and wait on a trapping hand and it happened. I did have a losing three days overall, but I flew to the Commerce in LA on Sunday and made it all back and then some - I highly recommend the Commerce. You need some gamble in you, but it is a fish tank at the mid stakes, at least is was that day.

I think I made more mistakes than usual on that trip, was not focused on poker enough and made bad calls even when I knew I was behind - not a winning strategy for sure. But, I straighten up, got with it and did what I needed to do in LA.

[BigSlickJedi]

I believe Dana has moved on to 93o. Although she was dealing for me last night and I saw the flop come out 744...I think if I was first to act after the flop, I would have immediately folded AA - LOL!

[WSOPJoe]

I cant say if I'd fold or not. Poker is completely situitational and I was not there. Often times when I play I keep in mind Gus Hansen's line that says some thing like the game is called "poker" not "waiting for the nuts". There are very few times in holdem that you'll have the absolute nuts -- To be a winner you have to have a little gamble in you especially when the odds are so stacked in your favor.

[jeremiah]

I somewhat agree with that thinking wsopjoe, but NO PLAYER in the world folds that hand! Did you guys miss the part where the river was a Q?! That player is holding the nut full house, queens full of sevens, not the original 7's full of queens on the flop. Maybe an argument could be made for a fold with 7's full, but thats only if you put the villain on exactly KK or AA. If i'm holding the nut full house, and the other guy by some miracle has that case 7, then it is what it is, you gotta have it to beat me. I mean, is this not remedial poker?! Who even considers folding here? It's not even an option

[WSOPJoe]

I was trying to be kind about folding a dream hand. I wasn't there so I can't say 100% what I'd do. My gut reaction with those cards is to push all in or call an all in. If he has quads well heck you have to pay him off. I pride myself on my reads and when on my A game being able to fold any hand when I know I'm beat. Maybe there was something that spooked her. Lets give emd the benefit of the doubt -- she was there we weren't.


Joe

[SweetDayToday]

What bet me was confidence and not noing the odds....being new this season...I'm learning. Lesson learned the hard way.

[Silverrider]

Yeah, there is only one card that can beat you here, and if he's got it, more power to him, you just got to pay the man! Like Joe said, this is a dream stituation, the odds of this guy having the other 7 are pretty slim.(5%, so you were 95% to win ) Plus sometimes it better to make the call, then to have to beat yourself up, for makin a bad fold!